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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
ninjaboogie · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
60%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
20%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
20%
Mirana
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
0%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
432 picks · 980 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
415 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 705 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 594 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 299 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 195 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
302 picks · 273 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
260 picks · 410 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 78%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:19
Team SMG 44%Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautMidOne
54% · 48 games55% · 39 games
MorphlingJaCkky
Morphling
Magnus
Magnuskpii
44% · 5 games54% · 31 game
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Undying
UndyingMushi
46% · 30 games51% · 56 games
LionQ
Lion
Rubick
RubickAhFu
44% · 68 games48% · 25 games
AbaddonLionaX
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct36:52
Team SMG 45%Motivate.Trust Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 52:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMidOne
57% · 62 games33% · 38 games
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkpii
61% · 54 games43% · 61 game
Storm SpiritFearless
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAhFu
43% · 15 games44% · 37 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Lion
LionMushi
61% · 54 games45% · 49 games
OracleLionaX
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 61%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2