Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spirit
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
ninjaboogie · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
Nigma Galaxy SEA
Ogre Magi
343 · 9 games
Troll Warlordsignature
Ghost · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
AlaCrity · 6 games
Rikioften banned
Ghost · 5 games
Juggernautoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
AlaCrity · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Force · 4 games
Disruptor
343 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
435 picks · 955 bans
Void Spirit
412 picks · 583 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 672 bans
Mars
335 picks · 591 bans
Earth Spirit
308 picks · 279 bans
Tusk
271 picks · 180 bans
Phoenix
262 picks · 379 bans
Grimstroke
257 picks · 224 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 65%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictionmissed