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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Banesignature
Roddgeee · 18 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 13 games
54%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 10 games
40%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 10 games
40%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 7 games
86%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Moon · 6 games
17%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
474 picks · 280 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
404 picks · 549 bans
56%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
355 picks · 502 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
352 picks · 460 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
316 picks · 520 bans
55%
Kunkka
Kunkka
288 picks · 519 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
273 picks · 365 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 190 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:55
Team SMG 42%Nigma Galaxy SEA 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 1:02:34.
Game 2prediction correct10:46
Team SMG 42%Nigma Galaxy SEA 58%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 29:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 58%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2