Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RSGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 19 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 13 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 11 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 10 games
Earthshaker
AhFu · 8 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
Linasignature
Moon · 6 games
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 432 bans
Mars
480 picks · 694 bans
Bane
449 picks · 295 bans
Dragon Knight
438 picks · 528 bans
Storm Spirit
383 picks · 614 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 601 bans
Sand King
371 picks · 532 bans
Grimstroke
346 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% RSG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:43
Team SMG 56%RSG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by RSG in 46:24.
Game 2prediction missed14:32
Team SMG 56%RSG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by RSG in 27:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 56%
Series resultRSG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2