Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SBSouth Built Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Brewmaster
AhFu · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
vtFαded · 6 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Tusk
AhFu · 6 games
Marsoften banned
Ohaiyo · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mushi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
vtFαded · 5 games
Mirana
AhFu · 4 games
South Built Esports
Gyrocopter
Abat · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Bob · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 990 bans
Mars
347 picks · 571 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 524 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 348 bans
Death Prophet
324 picks · 699 bans
Lion
324 picks · 176 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 223 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% South Built Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:36
Team SMG 56%South Built Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistMidOne
UrsaAbat
Night Stalkerkpii
TinyBob
EnchantressAhFu
Sand KingEnryu
Elder TitanRoddgeee
Game 2prediction correct41:25
Team SMG 56%South Built Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 38:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkMidOne
Anti-MageAbat
Necrophoskpii
BristlebackBob
Elder TitanAhFu
TinyEnryu
EnchantressRoddgeee
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 58%
Series resultTeam SMG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2