ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Bane
ninjaboogie · 11 games
Clockwerk
pieliedie · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
Enigmasignature
AhFu · 7 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Moon · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
596 picks · 457 bans
Puck
425 picks · 919 bans
Mars
369 picks · 588 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
353 picks · 183 bans
Dawnbreaker
335 picks · 381 bans
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 585 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total61% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:46
Team SMG 39%T1 61%
The model gave 61% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 39:13.
Game 2prediction correct
Team SMG 39%T1 61%
The model gave 61% on T1 — the game was taken by T1.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 61%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2