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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Team SMGloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Talon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Bane
Bane
ninjaboogie · 14 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Moon · 10 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
AhFu · 8 games
38%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
AhFu · 6 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Moon · 6 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Moon · 6 games
33%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 6 games
67%

Talon Esports

Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 11 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Hyde · 9 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 8 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusasignature
23savage · 7 games
86%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Q · 6 games
83%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
23savage · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
534 picks · 454 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 680 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
425 picks · 541 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
394 picks · 281 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 585 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
343 picks · 801 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
337 picks · 546 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 623 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:49
Team SMG 52%Talon Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMidOne
50% · 70 games52% · 76 games
Faceless Void23savage
Faceless Void
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoon
50% · 203 games49% · 124 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorAhFu
51% · 129 games51% · 141 game
Death Prophetkpii
Death Prophet
Clockwerk
Clockwerkpieliedie
49% · 155 games51% · 48 games
MarciQ
Marci
48% · 168 games
SnapfireHyde
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed14:53
Team SMG 51%Talon Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 39:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMidOne
71% · 3 games46% · 125 games
Lina23savage
Lina
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMoon
48% · 139 games50% · 109 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerkpieliedie
51% · 205 games57% · 44 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixAhFu
49% · 174 games46% · 124 games
HoodwinkQ
Hoodwink
53% · 119 games
SnapfireHyde
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 55%
Series resultTalon Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2