OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO5
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 3:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Team MagMaloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team SMG
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
Grimstroke
AhFu · 19 games
Lion
Roddgeee · 18 games
Abaddonsignature
Roddgeee · 17 games
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 16 games
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MidOne · 14 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
AhFu · 14 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
317 picks · 174 bans
Hoodwink
277 picks · 96 bans
Lina
273 picks · 530 bans
Mars
269 picks · 400 bans
Pangolier
261 picks · 367 bans
Shadow Demon
238 picks · 251 bans
Luna
228 picks · 326 bans
Abaddon
211 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:38
Team SMG 77%Team MagMa 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 35:25.
Game 2prediction correct22:9
Team SMG 77%Team MagMa 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 21:22.
Game 3prediction correct41:21
Team SMG 77%Team MagMa 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 28:40.
Game 4prediction missed17:51
Team SMG 77%Team MagMa 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 29:16.
Game 5prediction correct44:29
Team SMG 77%Team MagMa 23%
The model gave 77% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 36:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 77%
Series resultTeam SMG 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5