PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HChAze clanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 14 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Warlock
kyford · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
Dawnbreaker
SunshineRR · 8 games
hAze clan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
536 picks · 859 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 374 bans
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 790 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 576 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 556 bans
Mars
341 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% hAze clan
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% hAze clan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Team Spirit Academy 27%hAze clan 73%
The model gave 73% on hAze clan — the game was taken by hAze clan in 20:07.
Game 2prediction correct4:35
Team Spirit Academy 27%hAze clan 73%
The model gave 73% on hAze clan — the game was taken by hAze clan in 24:34.
Model check result
Model favoritehAze clan · 73%
Series resulthAze clan 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2