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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Inner Circleloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
17%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
44%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
25%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
29%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 17 games
35%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 17 games
35%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 16 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Fernans · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 12 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
18%
Sven
Sven
yowaai · 11 games
27%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
560 picks · 669 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
506 picks · 335 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
483 picks · 661 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 529 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
428 picks · 152 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 196 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 517 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 501 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Spirit Academy 31%Inner Circle 69%
The model gave 69% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 69%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1