European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstroke
Aidar · 25 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 17 games
Batridersignature
86 · 13 games
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
Largosignature
kae · 12 games
Baneoften banned
kyford · 10 games
Lion
Aidar · 9 games
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 28 games
Pangolier
Covisnine · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 20 games
Techies
ariel · 20 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 18 games
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
487 picks · 291 bans
Mirana
355 picks · 152 bans
Dark Willow
354 picks · 159 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 473 bans
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 300 bans
Earth Spirit
292 picks · 464 bans
Winter Wyvern
283 picks · 263 bans
Undying
269 picks · 365 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total54% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:0
Team Spirit Academy 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axekae
Timbersawtakizawa
Dragon Knight86
Lunabyun
LifestealerKiseki
Puckyoung G
PugnaAidar
TechiesVaniLLl
Winter Wyvernsaillyn
Dark Willowariel
Game 2prediction missed26:28
Team Spirit Academy 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Axekae
Lunabyun
Dragon Knight86
Timbersawtakizawa
LifestealerKiseki
Puckyoung G
PugnaAidar
TechiesVaniLLl
Winter Wyvernsaillyn
Dark Willowariel
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 54%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2