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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NPC's IRLloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 16 games
25%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 10 games
30%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
40%
Dazzle
Dazzle
kyford · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
22%
Warlock
Warlock
kyford · 9 games
11%

NPC's IRL

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SsaSpartan · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Atoufix · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 2 games
0%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Focus · 2 games
0%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Focus · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nande · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
SsaSpartan · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Focus · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 935 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 425 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
476 picks · 628 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
452 picks · 593 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 944 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 246 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
397 picks · 663 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 437 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 29%
Hero pool strength54% NPC's IRL
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:17
Team Spirit Academy 73%NPC's IRL 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 30:40.
Game 2prediction correct47:21
Team Spirit Academy 73%NPC's IRL 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 33:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2