DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 1:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Paseka Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
Huskaroften banned
rubikon155 · 7 games
Paseka Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
559 picks · 664 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 332 bans
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 662 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 529 bans
Snapfire
435 picks · 152 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 198 bans
Mars
380 picks · 515 bans
Gyrocopter
367 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Paseka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
Team Spirit Academy 55%Paseka Team 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 27:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 55%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1