EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TJTeam Jenzwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
Grimstroke
Aidar · 16 games
Jakiro
kyford · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
86 · 11 games
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 10 games
Batrideroften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 9 games
Largooften banned
kae · 9 games
Team Jenz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
527 picks · 381 bans
Rubick
438 picks · 259 bans
Tiny
370 picks · 372 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 634 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 439 bans
Windranger
326 picks · 234 bans
Phoenix
300 picks · 233 bans
Storm Spirit
296 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Jenz
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Team Jenz
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:40
Team Spirit Academy 38%Team Jenz 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 1:09:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LargoBatyuk
LunaParker
Kunkka86
LinaNo!ob
Dark WillowAidar
RubickJing
62% · 82 games
Treant ProtectorYadomi
Game 2prediction correct17:35
Team Spirit Academy 39%Team Jenz 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Jenz — the game was taken by Team Jenz in 36:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka86
Shadow FiendParker
LargoBatyuk
SnapfireNo!ob
GrimstrokeAidar
Shadow DemonJing
56% · 85 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Jenz · 70%
Series resultTeam Jenz 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2