DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Kunkkasignature
Larl · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 14 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 13 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 11 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 10 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
1w Team
Gyrocopter
RESPECT · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 17 games
Magnussignature
Cloud · 16 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Chira JUNIOR · 15 games
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 15 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
RESPECT · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
371 picks · 324 bans
Centaur Warrunner
333 picks · 476 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 393 bans
Mars
263 picks · 358 bans
Techies
263 picks · 180 bans
Hoodwink
259 picks · 143 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 25%
Hero pool strength58% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Team Spirit 84%1w Team 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenYatoro
WindrangerMunkushi~
LinaLarl
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Primal BeastCollapse
TidehunterCloud
GyrocopterMiposhka
Tinyswedenstrong
TechiesMira
Crystal MaidenRESPECT
Game 2prediction correct
Team Spirit 97%1w Team 3%
The model gave 97% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 97%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2