DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Tusk
rue · 17 games
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 15 games
Jakiro
Panto · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 15 games
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 15 games
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 33 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 28 games
Warlocksignature
kasane · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 21 game
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 21 game
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
766 picks · 354 bans
Hoodwink
573 picks · 299 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 551 bans
Jakiro
529 picks · 393 bans
Dragon Knight
514 picks · 622 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 288 bans
Mars
465 picks · 736 bans
Centaur Warrunner
454 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:5
Team Spirit 69%1w Team 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYatoro
TerrorbladeMunkushi~
LeshracLarl
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
MarsSSS
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Tuskswedenstrong
Shadow Demonrue
DazzleRein
Game 2prediction correct34:19
Team Spirit 68%1w Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYatoro
JuggernautMunkushi~
Queen of PainLarl
PuckSquad1x
AxeCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerSSS
JakiroPanto
ChenRein
Nyx Assassinrue
Batriderswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2