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ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 3:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 3:0
9Pandasloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 38 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 27 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
76%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 19 games
63%

9Pandas

Tiny
Tinysignature
erase · 18 games
72%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 16 games
75%
Lion
Lionsignature
lupsione · 16 games
69%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 16 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 13 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
jesv · 12 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 12 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 404 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
447 picks · 562 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
417 picks · 515 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
409 picks · 218 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
403 picks · 672 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
396 picks · 443 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
367 picks · 592 bans
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
354 picks · 917 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:21
Team Spirit 74%9Pandas 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanCollapse
56% · 30 games49% · 139 games
LunaV-Tune
Luna
Spectre
SpectreYatoro
57% · 17 games45% · 158 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
50% · 152 games55% · 33 games
Night Stalkerlaise
Night Stalker
Chen
ChenMiposhka
57% · 90 games41% · 158 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
49% · 270 games50% · 71 game
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct35:14
Team Spirit 75%9Pandas 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
56% · 100 games47% · 239 games
Templar AssassinV-Tune
Templar Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackCollapse
52% · 153 games50% · 273 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyLarl
53% · 270 games69% · 25 games
Legion Commanderlaise
Legion Commander
Phoenix
PhoenixMiposhka
47% · 218 games50% · 311 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
45% · 245 games45% · 138 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct33:9
Team Spirit 72%9Pandas 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYatoro
52% · 23 games42% · 58 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCollapse
47% · 215 games50% · 151 game
Invokererase
Invoker
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
53% · 145 games59% · 125 games
Bristlebacklaise
Bristleback
Lion
Lionrue
49% · 198 games45% · 193 games
Dark Willowlupsione
Dark Willow
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
60% · 43 games49% · 97 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3