?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 43 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 27 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 23 games
70%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 23 games
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rue · 22 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Larl · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 22 games
64%

ASAKURA

Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
333 · 3 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
4IVAN · 2 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pJonn · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
Palantimos · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
4IVAN · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
389 picks · 495 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
377 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
357 picks · 381 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 552 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 387 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
317 picks · 726 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
293 picks · 408 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:3
Team Spirit 85%ASAKURA 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 23:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
52% · 60 games42% · 378 games
Pangolieryoung G
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
53% · 290 games49% · 124 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Enigma
EnigmaCollapse
56% · 181 game46% · 260 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Lion
Lionrue
56% · 315 games50% · 157 games
Muertaslimeyao
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
54% · 322 games42% · 249 games
Tuskso bad
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct32:20
Team Spirit 83%ASAKURA 17%
The model gave 83% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
51% · 163 games46% · 169 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Sniper
SniperLarl
52% · 130 games44% · 30 games
Spectre7jesu
Spectre
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCollapse
45% · 99 games56% · 257 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenMiposhka
51% · 122 games50% · 138 games
Muertaslimeyao
Muerta
Batrider
Batriderrue
51% · 346 games50% · 266 games
Clockwerkso bad
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 96%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2