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PGL Wallachia Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 40 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 28 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 28 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 27 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 26 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 25 games
80%

Aurora Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Q · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Jabz · 14 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Abed · 13 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Abed · 13 games
46%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Jabz · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 708 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
385 picks · 752 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
370 picks · 376 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
355 picks · 210 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 634 bans
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
343 picks · 660 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 421 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
314 picks · 576 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Team Spirit 69%Aurora Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
47% · 144 games46% · 253 games
Beastmasterkiyotaka
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingLarl
54% · 290 games41% · 37 games
AbaddonNightfall
Abaddon
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
53% · 208 games61% · 166 games
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
Sand King
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
40% · 305 games52% · 211 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneMiposhka
51% · 35 games50% · 315 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct44:18
Team Spirit 67%Aurora Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
51% · 138 games52% · 129 games
Puckkiyotaka
Puck
Viper
ViperCollapse
41% · 53 games48% · 173 games
Monkey KingNightfall
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingLarl
55% · 224 games53% · 153 games
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
Doom
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMiposhka
55% · 37 games45% · 27 games
SilencerPanto
Silencer
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
43% · 238 games53% · 208 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2