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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 37 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Panto · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Tusk
Tusk
rue · 21 game
52%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 20 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 56 games
70%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 54 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 49 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 41 game
76%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 40 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 36 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
545 picks · 331 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
473 picks · 571 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
436 picks · 232 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 356 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 492 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 224 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 850 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
318 picks · 811 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total57% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Team Spirit 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 29:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
49% · 265 games57% · 107 games
Faceless VoidNightfall
Faceless Void
Alchemist
AlchemistYatoro
47% · 76 games56% · 222 games
Queen of PainMikoto
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
46% · 154 games55% · 153 games
DoomWs
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenixrue
43% · 288 games54% · 268 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Techies
Techiesnot me
40% · 66 games51% · 99 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 2prediction correct42:52
Team Spirit 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:06:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerLarl
53% · 124 games53% · 71 game
Naga SirenNightfall
Naga Siren
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
51% · 82 games51% · 98 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Rubick
Rubickrue
47% · 165 games45% · 179 games
Void SpiritMikoto
Void Spirit
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCollapse
54% · 12 games43% · 122 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Marci
Marcinot me
59% · 146 games47% · 59 games
LionMira
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 57%
Series resultAurora Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2