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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 40 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
not me · 18 games
61%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 17 games
35%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yatoro · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%

Aurora Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 53 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 49 games
59%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 38 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 38 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 38 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 37 games
62%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 37 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 32 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
502 picks · 349 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
354 picks · 412 bans
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
343 picks · 632 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 465 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
313 picks · 171 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
307 picks · 340 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
303 picks · 583 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 220 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total51% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:32
Team Spirit 47%Aurora Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYatoro
51% · 232 games55% · 277 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
52% · 476 games58% · 390 games
Ember SpiritMikoto
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
47% · 384 games44% · 274 games
AxeWs
Axe
Ringmaster
Ringmasternot me
49% · 433 games50% · 579 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Undying
Undyingrue
48% · 257 games47% · 262 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Game 2prediction missed36:25
Team Spirit 50%Aurora Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYatoro
56% · 45 games48% · 111 games
SvenNightfall
Sven
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
50% · 103 games57% · 403 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsCollapse
42% · 330 games51% · 45 games
LinaMikoto
Lina
Jakiro
Jakirorue
51% · 499 games47% · 230 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Bane
Banenot me
47% · 161 game53% · 349 games
Shadow DemonMira
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 51%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2