ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 12 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 12 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
467 picks · 632 bans
Bane
453 picks · 281 bans
Tiny
443 picks · 492 bans
Sand King
399 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
359 picks · 790 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 544 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 553 bans
Pangolier
333 picks · 509 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total75% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:39
Team Spirit 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:40.
Game 2prediction missed14:38
Team Spirit 75%beastcoast 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by beastcoast in 33:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 75%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2