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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 35 games
69%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
83%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 16 games
63%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Larl · 16 games
75%

BETBOOM TEAM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Save- · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Save- · 9 games
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
782 picks · 525 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
558 picks · 401 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
543 picks · 443 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
534 picks · 574 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
425 picks · 674 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
401 picks · 290 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
388 picks · 745 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 808 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:30
Team Spirit 55%BETBOOM TEAM 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYatoro
43% · 82 games50% · 40 games
Lone DruidPure~
Lone Druid
Puck
PuckLarl
50% · 262 games58% · 330 games
Death ProphetgpK~
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
55% · 193 games56% · 134 games
BroodmotherNightfall
Broodmother
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
45% · 491 game50% · 82 games
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
39% · 160 games51% · 602 games
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct24:18
Team Spirit 57%BETBOOM TEAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
52% · 27 games50% · 97 games
LycanNightfall
Lycan
Zeus
ZeusLarl
44% · 79 games46% · 32 games
Lone DruidPure~
Lone Druid
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
53% · 90 games50% · 111 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickMira
44% · 206 games54% · 49 games
PugnaSave-
Pugna
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
47% · 105 games61% · 218 games
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Undying
Game 3prediction correct38:33
Team Spirit 58%BETBOOM TEAM 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:12:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
43% · 81 game51% · 83 games
Naga SirenPure~
Naga Siren
Lycan
LycanCollapse
52% · 80 games49% · 148 games
LeshracgpK~
Leshrac
Puck
PuckLarl
56% · 147 games50% · 193 games
BeastmasterNightfall
Beastmaster
Lion
LionMira
53% · 25 games41% · 47 games
JakiroTORONTOTOKYO
Jakiro
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
55% · 183 games42% · 45 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3