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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 16 games
75%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
92%

BETBOOM TEAM

Bane
Banesignature
Kataomi · 35 games
74%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Save- · 32 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 27 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 26 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Pure~ · 23 games
52%
Windranger
Windranger
Save- · 22 games
55%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 21 game
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
gpK~ · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
680 picks · 327 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
570 picks · 587 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
449 picks · 232 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
396 picks · 1140 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
380 picks · 658 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
366 picks · 253 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
344 picks · 895 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 154 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:17
Team Spirit 64%BETBOOM TEAM 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 39:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetLarl
55% · 308 games50% · 29 games
JuggernautKiritych
Juggernaut
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
53% · 218 games52% · 337 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
54% · 112 games47% · 138 games
Primal BeastgpK~
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
43% · 264 games45% · 391 game
TuskSave-
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPanto
54% · 238 games48% · 245 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct20:2
Team Spirit 63%BETBOOM TEAM 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 20:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
46% · 74 games54% · 104 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
41% · 112 games46% · 53 games
UnderlordMieRo
Underlord
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
49% · 224 games49% · 365 games
PuckgpK~
Puck
Muerta
Muertarue
55% · 213 games59% · 86 games
Bounty HunterSave-
Bounty Hunter
Pugna
PugnaPanto
48% · 170 games50% · 185 games
WarlockKataomi
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed8:22
Team Spirit 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckLarl
56% · 336 games54% · 341 game
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
51% · 371 game51% · 220 games
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsCollapse
47% · 215 games47% · 192 games
Primal BeastgpK~
Primal Beast
Pugna
PugnaPanto
52% · 294 games51% · 287 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
43% · 290 games47% · 466 games
TuskKataomi
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3