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The International 2022 · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
BOOM Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 26 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 16 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Miposhka · 14 games
57%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 12 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
58%

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 33 games
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 24 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 22 games
45%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Tims · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Tims · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 14 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
530 picks · 398 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
482 picks · 714 bans
53%
Undying
Undying
311 picks · 519 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
307 picks · 473 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
290 picks · 683 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
285 picks · 387 bans
47%
Enigma
Enigma
271 picks · 865 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
264 picks · 369 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:18
Team Spirit 58%BOOM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
48% · 105 games45% · 81 game
Shadow FiendJaCkky
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 133 games44% · 90 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCollapse
58% · 78 games50% · 219 games
MarsYopaj
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
55% · 185 games53% · 89 games
DisruptorSkem
Disruptor
Lich
LichMiposhka
41% · 86 games58% · 108 games
MarciTims
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultBOOM Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1