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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 18 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 17 games
35%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
65%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 23 games
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 16 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 16 games
81%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
27%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
ILICH- · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Panda · 13 games
77%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
ILICH- · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
486 picks · 215 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
419 picks · 738 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 565 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
397 picks · 164 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
390 picks · 345 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
374 picks · 771 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 564 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Team Spirit 58%BOOM Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
51% · 36 games50% · 134 games
Naga SirenPakazs
Naga Siren
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
54% · 133 games53% · 87 games
EnigmaSacred
Enigma
Lina
LinaLarl
48% · 34 games48% · 313 games
TechiesPanda
Techies
Batrider
BatriderMiposhka
48% · 265 games
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMira
50% · 66 games
Game 2prediction correct27:17
Team Spirit 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackYatoro
59% · 19 games48% · 190 games
GyrocopterPakazs
Gyrocopter
Doom
DoomCollapse
52% · 109 games41% · 53 games
SlardarSacred
Slardar
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLarl
56% · 111 games47% · 186 games
PhoenixPanda
Phoenix
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
51% · 63 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMira
54% · 127 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2