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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Darksideloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 25 games
68%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 19 games
84%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Mira · 11 games
27%

Darkside

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 351 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
276 picks · 203 bans
60%
Mirana
Mirana
268 picks · 265 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
197 picks · 146 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
184 picks · 106 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
181 picks · 500 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
173 picks · 469 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 50%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:29
Team Spirit 84%Darkside 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Darkside in 37:21.
Game 2prediction correct36:8
Team Spirit 84%Darkside 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:00.
Game 3prediction correct33:11
Team Spirit 84%Darkside 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3