Team Spirit vs Deboosters — prediction GRM · Dota 2

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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2

result vs prediction

Team Spiritwin 2:0

series probability

91%9%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Deboostersloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Banesignature

Miposhka · 17 games

65%

Monkey Kingsignature

Yatoro · 11 games

64%

Rubicksignature

Mira · 11 games

64%

Keeper of the Lightsignature

Mira · 10 games

70%

Sand Kingsignature

Collapse · 10 games

70%

Storm Spiritsignature

TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games

70%

Kunkkasignature

TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games

89%

Marssignature

Collapse · 9 games

67%

Deboosters

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

580 picks · 440 bans

51%

Puck

409 picks · 870 bans

56%

Mars

389 picks · 600 bans

46%

Dragon Knight

365 picks · 479 bans

51%

Snapfire

346 picks · 176 bans

49%

Bane

328 picks · 224 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

302 picks · 581 bans

44%

Dawnbreaker

296 picks · 352 bans

46%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%

Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total91% Team Spirit

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct35:5

Team Spirit 75%Deboosters 25%

The model gave 75% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:16.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo