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PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 15 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
85%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 13 games
85%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%

Evil Geniuses

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Berna · 9 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
Wij · 5 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 479 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
463 picks · 969 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
383 picks · 474 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 188 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
343 picks · 661 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 558 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 426 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:24
Team Spirit 67%Evil Geniuses 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 49:14.
Game 2prediction missed18:45
Team Spirit 67%Evil Geniuses 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 42:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 67%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2