BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Execrationwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Jakiro
Miposhka · 12 games
Execration
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 24 games
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
Marssignature
Tino- · 16 games
Tusksignature
Shanks · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 12 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 12 games
Sven
Palos · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
570 picks · 287 bans
Disruptor
508 picks · 514 bans
Puck
379 picks · 1048 bans
Pugna
340 picks · 387 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 171 bans
Warlock
335 picks · 156 bans
Mars
334 picks · 567 bans
Tusk
322 picks · 238 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 66%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:28
Team Spirit 71%Execration 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Execration in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYatoro
GyrocopterPalos
Dragon KnightLarl
AxeTino-
AbaddonCollapse
PuckBob
ChenPanto
TuskShanks
Ringmasterrue
Techiescml
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 86%
Series resultExecration 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1