DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Execrationloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 22 games
Ringmaster
rue · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 20 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
Execration
Snapfire
Shanks · 29 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 27 games
Tusk
Shanks · 25 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Palos · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 21 game
Axeoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
cml · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
637 picks · 991 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 442 bans
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 637 bans
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 1033 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 481 bans
Warlock
438 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
Mars
418 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
Team Spirit 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
GyrocopterPalos
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Queen of PainBob
Void SpiritMirele
MarsTino-
ChenPanto
Jakirocml
Shadow Demonrue
Earth SpiritShanks
Game 2prediction correct24:11
Team Spirit 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzYatoro
Dragon KnightPalos
Storm SpiritMirele
RazorTino-
Primal BeastCollapse
Void SpiritBob
ChenPanto
Warlockcml
Largorue
ClockwerkShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2