The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 27 games
Rubick
Mira · 25 games
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
410 picks · 373 bans
Hoodwink
386 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
377 picks · 544 bans
Jakiro
344 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
329 picks · 712 bans
Phoenix
316 picks · 580 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 633 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 40%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Team Spirit 80%G2 Invictus Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:35.
Game 2prediction correct29:8
Team Spirit 80%G2 Invictus Gaming 20%
The model gave 80% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 80%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2