DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 57 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 27 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 27 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 22 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 52 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 30 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 28 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 28 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 28 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
741 picks · 562 bans
Disruptor
606 picks · 524 bans
Beastmaster
560 picks · 1274 bans
Doom
556 picks · 1095 bans
Techies
507 picks · 570 bans
Pangolier
473 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
461 picks · 1109 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 648 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total60% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:22
Team Spirit 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
LycanAce
PangolierLarl
Terrorbladedyrachyo
DoomCollapse
Ember SpiritQuinn
TechiesMira
EnchantressSeleri
LichMiposhka
MiranatOfu
Game 2prediction correct31:40
Team Spirit 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperLarl
HuskarQuinn
MiranaCollapse
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
LifestealerYatoro
EnchantressSeleri
Ember SpiritMira
UnderlordAce
TechiesMiposhka
LiontOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 60%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2