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1win Series Dota 2 Fall · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 39 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 29 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 26 games
81%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Malik · 21 game
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Satanic · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malik · 20 games
45%

Gaimin Gladiators

Underlord
Underlord
Ace · 21 game
57%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Ace · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Seleri · 20 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
53%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
36%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 675 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
422 picks · 475 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 541 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
337 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 426 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
322 picks · 654 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
309 picks · 319 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:4
Team Spirit 55%Gaimin Gladiators 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistSatanic
54% · 179 games44% · 34 games
MeepoWatson
Meepo
Sniper
SniperLarl
49% · 89 games47% · 211 games
PhoenixAce
Phoenix
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
54% · 175 games52% · 217 games
Storm SpiritQuinn
Storm Spirit
Chen
ChenMiposhka
57% · 96 games54% · 27 games
TinkerSeleri
Tinker
Batrider
Batriderrue
46% · 236 games47% · 286 games
TusktOfu
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct38:10
Team Spirit 54%Gaimin Gladiators 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSatanic
46% · 142 games43% · 199 games
MorphlingWatson
Morphling
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritLarl
59% · 139 games50% · 85 games
UnderlordAce
Underlord
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
55% · 150 games50% · 209 games
TinyQuinn
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaMiposhka
51% · 187 games46% · 210 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Tusk
Tuskrue
46% · 321 game54% · 236 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 60%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2