PGL Wallachia Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
GamerLegionwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Jakirosignature
Panto · 31 game
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 30 games
Tusk
rue · 30 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
GamerLegion
Tusksignature
Bignum · 23 games
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 22 games
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 21 game
Jakiro
Speeed · 21 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
RCY · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
616 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
505 picks · 401 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 398 bans
Phoenix
442 picks · 487 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 208 bans
Warlock
407 picks · 253 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1035 bans
Puck
383 picks · 873 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:42
Team Spirit 58%GamerLegion 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYatoro
Lone DruidGhost
Queen of PainLarl
HuskarRCY
TidehunterBatyuk
Sand KingFayde
Treant ProtectorPanto
VenomancerSpeeed
Rubickrue
GrimstrokeBignum
Game 2prediction missed13:37
Team Spirit 62%GamerLegion 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 40:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaYatoro
TinyGhost
Sand KingLarl
KezRCY
LargoBatyuk
SlardarFayde
Hoodwinkrue
VenomancerSpeeed
TuskPanto
RubickBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultGamerLegion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2