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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hellbear Smashersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 17 games
88%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 13 games
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 13 games
85%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
54%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 12 games
75%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
92%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
82%

Hellbear Smashers

Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 24 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 21 game
62%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 16 games
81%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 14 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
374 picks · 207 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
373 picks · 979 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 595 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
340 picks · 359 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
311 picks · 178 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
286 picks · 220 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 612 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
274 picks · 188 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 45%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total73% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:37
Team Spirit 63%Hellbear Smashers 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
40% · 7 games55% · 49 games
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
50% · 55 games58% · 40 games
Monkey KingAce
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 57 games48% · 9 games
BrewmasterMISERY
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickMira
47% · 52 games49% · 33 games
Winter WyverntOfu
Winter Wyvern
Warlock
WarlockMiposhka
45% · 22 games49% · 62 games
LinaGilgir
Lina
Game 2prediction missed14:34
Team Spirit 64%Hellbear Smashers 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYatoro
61% · 32 games40% · 63 games
BloodseekerAce
Bloodseeker
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderCollapse
49% · 33 games50% · 49 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 35 games46% · 31 game
VenomancerMISERY
Venomancer
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
60% · 92 games37% · 49 games
Crystal MaidentOfu
Crystal Maiden
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
53% · 107 games52% · 107 games
TinyGilgir
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct27:17
Team Spirit 61%Hellbear Smashers 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYatoro
46% · 51 game57% · 101 game
Wraith KingAce
Wraith King
Viper
ViperTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 53 games49% · 69 games
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
41% · 27 games48% · 13 games
VenomancerMISERY
Venomancer
Tiny
TinyMira
47% · 97 games44% · 43 games
Crystal MaidentOfu
Crystal Maiden
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
49% · 136 games57% · 138 games
Nyx AssassinGilgir
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3