Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 8 games
Iosignature
Mira · 7 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
432 picks · 271 bans
Mars
422 picks · 560 bans
Tiny
378 picks · 440 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 715 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 462 bans
Sand King
314 picks · 431 bans
Pangolier
274 picks · 418 bans
Storm Spirit
272 picks · 413 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength62% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:8
Team Spirit 77%HellRaisers 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:48.
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Team Spirit 77%HellRaisers 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2