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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 13 games
38%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
KJ · 20 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 16 games
63%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 11 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
502 picks · 784 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 956 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
454 picks · 719 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
452 picks · 352 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 597 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
443 picks · 195 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
433 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
419 picks · 707 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:48
Team Spirit 58%Heroic 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 39:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
51% · 180 games47% · 152 games
LunaK1
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
49% · 125 games50% · 139 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Lina
LinaLarl
48% · 81 game52% · 258 games
Primal BeastDavai
Primal Beast
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMiposhka
50% · 228 games51% · 132 games
GrimstrokeScofield
Grimstroke
Tiny
TinyMira
50% · 231 game52% · 164 games
GyrocopterKJ
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed18:35
Team Spirit 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Heroic in 51:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
50% · 265 games55% · 99 games
Troll WarlordK1
Troll Warlord
Tiny
TinyLarl
53% · 214 games53% · 225 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Magnus
MagnusCollapse
53% · 199 games51% · 442 games
PangolierDavai
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickMira
44% · 481 game39% · 215 games
SnapfireScofield
Snapfire
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiposhka
51% · 133 games50% · 311 games
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 69%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2