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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 28 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 27 games
81%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Larl · 25 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
84%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Larl · 19 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 18 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Mira · 16 games
75%

Heroic

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 27 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Scofield · 26 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Scofield · 19 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 17 games
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 16 games
63%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
K1 · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
373 picks · 497 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
368 picks · 341 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
304 picks · 596 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
296 picks · 355 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
274 picks · 142 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
251 picks · 409 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
250 picks · 252 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total56% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Team Spirit 52%Heroic 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSatanic
47% · 372 games51% · 350 games
LunaParker
Luna
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLarl
51% · 225 games54% · 305 games
Storm Spirit4nalog
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
52% · 390 games53% · 317 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
44% · 302 games48% · 291 game
LionScofield
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
48% · 358 games52% · 384 games
ClockwerkKJ
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct46:46
Team Spirit 53%Heroic 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:06:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
49% · 278 games50% · 127 games
BristlebackParker
Bristleback
Riki
RikiLarl
57% · 11 games56% · 256 games
TimbersawDavai
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingMalik
45% · 118 games49% · 159 games
Invoker4nalog
Invoker
Tusk
TuskMiposhka
42% · 208 games58% · 212 games
LionScofield
Lion
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
52% · 221 game50% · 82 games
OmniknightKJ
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 56%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2