BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Jakiro
Miposhka · 14 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
Yuma · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
627 picks · 312 bans
Disruptor
541 picks · 550 bans
Puck
403 picks · 1121 bans
Hoodwink
383 picks · 203 bans
Mars
364 picks · 614 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
Tusk
348 picks · 270 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:19
Team Spirit 52%Heroic 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzYatoro
Templar AssassinYuma
Nature's ProphetLarl
BeastmasterDavai
Sand KingCollapse
LeshracWisper
Hoodwinkrue
Naga SirenKJ
DisruptorPanto
SnapfireScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 57%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1