FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 17 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Hoodwink
rue · 13 games
Heroic
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Tusk
Scofield · 21 game
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 17 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
Pucksignature
4nalog · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
677 picks · 327 bans
Disruptor
572 picks · 587 bans
Hoodwink
447 picks · 232 bans
Puck
402 picks · 1154 bans
Mars
382 picks · 658 bans
Tusk
368 picks · 256 bans
Queen of Pain
350 picks · 913 bans
Warlock
348 picks · 156 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:8
Team Spirit 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckLarl
BeastmasterWisper
MedusaYatoro
GyrocopterYuma
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
EnigmaDavai
Naga SirenPanto
HoodwinkScofield
Ringmasterrue
OmniknightKJ
Game 2prediction correct23:4
Team Spirit 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYatoro
GyrocopterYuma
SlardarLarl
PuckWisper
KunkkaCollapse
Dark SeerDavai
Naga SirenPanto
TuskScofield
Hoodwinkrue
BaneKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2