PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Hoodwink
rue · 16 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Yatoro · 16 games
Tusksignature
rue · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Larl · 14 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 26 games
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 21 game
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
4nalog · 19 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 18 games
Pucksignature
4nalog · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
761 picks · 359 bans
Disruptor
601 picks · 619 bans
Hoodwink
551 picks · 300 bans
Dragon Knight
456 picks · 520 bans
Tusk
453 picks · 267 bans
Mars
443 picks · 730 bans
Puck
443 picks · 1165 bans
Jakiro
422 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:10
Team Spirit 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciYatoro
AbaddonYuma
PangolierLarl
Ember SpiritWisper
Dark SeerCollapse
AxeDavai
PugnaPanto
TinyScofield
Tuskrue
BaneKJ
Game 2prediction correct32:22
Team Spirit 59%Heroic 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYatoro
UrsaYuma
Storm SpiritLarl
LeshracWisper
Sand KingCollapse
PangolierDavai
JakiroPanto
SnapfireScofield
Ringmasterrue
Naga SirenKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2