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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 37 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 23 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 18 games
83%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Mira · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Larl · 16 games
63%

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 26 games
81%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 16 games
69%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 11 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lefitan · 10 games
90%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
795 picks · 554 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
566 picks · 399 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
525 picks · 567 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 431 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 731 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
417 picks · 819 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
407 picks · 289 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 850 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:41
Team Spirit 63%Hydra 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Hydra in 49:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
46% · 98 games49% · 127 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCollapse
48% · 162 games57% · 227 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Sniper
SniperLarl
44% · 107 games53% · 72 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
56% · 41 game52% · 148 games
EnchantressHappyDyurara
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMiposhka
46% · 293 games53% · 127 games
DisruptorLefitan
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct26:20
Team Spirit 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
54% · 54 games49% · 139 games
Shadow FiendKami
Shadow Fiend
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
52% · 435 games55% · 164 games
BroodmotherCloud
Broodmother
Mars
MarsCollapse
47% · 353 games54% · 233 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorMira
50% · 172 games47% · 204 games
EnchantressLefitan
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingMiposhka
50% · 303 games45% · 577 games
TinyHappyDyurara
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct39:31
Team Spirit 64%Hydra 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 52:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
43% · 158 games58% · 273 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCollapse
42% · 71 game52% · 126 games
PudgeKami
Pudge
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
50% · 271 game62% · 189 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
43% · 286 games52% · 166 games
DisruptorLefitan
Disruptor
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
45% · 185 games53% · 217 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3