The International 10 (2021) · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Miranasignature
Mira · 35 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 32 games
Tinysignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 29 games
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 25 games
Lionsignature
Mira · 23 games
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 18 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
311 picks · 178 bans
Mars
294 picks · 409 bans
Lina
283 picks · 573 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 366 bans
Shadow Demon
249 picks · 258 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 420 bans
Hoodwink
242 picks · 88 bans
Void Spirit
232 picks · 257 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength61% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:9
Team Spirit 61%Invictus Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:49.
Game 2prediction correct33:26
Team Spirit 61%Invictus Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2