ESL One Berlin Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubicksignature
Mira · 47 games
Snapfiresignature
Mira · 27 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Undyingsignature
Miposhka · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Tusksignature
Larl · 18 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1002 picks · 705 bans
Tiny
631 picks · 465 bans
Disruptor
571 picks · 421 bans
Nature's Prophet
569 picks · 920 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 405 bans
Snapfire
524 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
513 picks · 1213 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 383 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 41%
Hero pool strength60% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:16
Team Spirit 84%Invictus Gaming 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:07.
Game 2prediction correct33:13
Team Spirit 84%Invictus Gaming 16%
The model gave 84% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 84%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2