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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
LGD Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 21 game
81%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 18 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
88%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 14 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 14 games
86%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 12 games
83%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 30 games
80%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 28 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 21 game
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
65%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 18 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
XinQ · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 220 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 992 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
394 picks · 636 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
372 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
343 picks · 190 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
303 picks · 214 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 218 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 375 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:32
Team Spirit 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 33:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYatoro
52% · 75 games50% · 86 games
LinaNothingToSay
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterCollapse
41% · 121 game51% · 64 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTORONTOTOKYO
49% · 168 games52% · 244 games
MarsFaith_bian
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
54% · 158 games51% · 219 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
47% · 127 games50% · 36 games
Warlocky`
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed30:18
Team Spirit 48%LGD Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
52% · 44 games53% · 81 game
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Lina
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 72 games50% · 46 games
AxeFaith_bian
Axe
Mars
MarsCollapse
56% · 179 games46% · 86 games
UrsaAme
Ursa
Phoenix
PhoenixMira
52% · 112 games40% · 168 games
GrimstrokeXinQ
Grimstroke
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMiposhka
44% · 16 games53% · 42 games
Treant Protectory`
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2