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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 27 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 26 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 21 game
81%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 20 games
60%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 19 games
32%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 17 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
390 picks · 717 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 633 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
327 picks · 271 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 374 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
320 picks · 470 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
299 picks · 536 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 30%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:27
Team Spirit 69%LGD Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
49% · 66 games47% · 69 games
Shadow FiendEcho
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyLarl
53% · 263 games54% · 111 games
Alchemistshiro
Alchemist
Dark Seer
Dark SeerCollapse
45% · 121 game53% · 293 games
Marsniu
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 199 games47% · 334 games
BatriderPyw
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMiposhka
53% · 220 games49% · 62 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct37:15
Team Spirit 68%LGD Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCollapse
51% · 224 games55% · 120 games
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYatoro
48% · 135 games49% · 310 games
PangolierEcho
Pangolier
Tiny
TinyLarl
49% · 419 games54% · 317 games
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
49% · 255 games47% · 218 games
ClockwerkPyw
Clockwerk
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiposhka
51% · 150 games47% · 218 games
Phoenixy`
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 81%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2