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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Live to Winloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 4 games
25%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
so bad · 3 games
67%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yatoro · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
so bad · 2 games
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
Collapse · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 2 games
0%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yatoro · 2 games
100%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Collapse · 2 games
50%

Live to Win

Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
AfterLife · 2 games
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 2 games
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Kami · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
100%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
AfterLife · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
SoNNeikO · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Immersion · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
197 picks · 428 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
178 picks · 328 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
170 picks · 238 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
165 picks · 138 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
143 picks · 164 bans
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
134 picks · 222 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
125 picks · 432 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
122 picks · 71 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Live to Win
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Live to Win
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:45
Team Spirit 43%Live to Win 57%
The model gave 57% on Live to Win — the game was taken by Live to Win in 53:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautYatoro
45% · 18 games63% · 4 games
RikiKami
Riki
Slark
SlarkTORONTOTOKYO
40% · 14 games44% · 25 games
Batriderfn
Batrider
Abaddon
AbaddonCollapse
58% · 8 gameslittle data
Dark SeerAfterLife
Dark Seer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMira
64% · 9 games52% · 27 games
Nyx AssassinImmersion
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorMiposhka
59% · 7 gameslittle data
JakiroSoNNeikO
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed21:9
Team Spirit 40%Live to Win 60%
The model gave 60% on Live to Win — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYatoro
36% · 20 games58% · 17 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTORONTOTOKYO
45% · 29 games48% · 9 games
Lycanfn
Lycan
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCollapse
49% · 14 games49% · 41 game
BatriderAfterLife
Batrider
Rubick
RubickMira
46% · 39 games56% · 30 games
GrimstrokeSoNNeikO
Grimstroke
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
53% · 45 games54% · 50 games
Nyx AssassinImmersion
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction missed25:8
Team Spirit 43%Live to Win 57%
The model gave 57% on Live to Win — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYatoro
47% · 18 games69% · 8 games
LycanAfterLife
Lycan
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 41 game53% · 55 games
Monkey Kingfn
Monkey King
Mars
MarsCollapse
44% · 57 games41% · 33 games
RikiKami
Riki
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMiposhka
54% · 41 game62% · 25 games
EarthshakerImmersion
Earthshaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
68% · 16 games43% · 52 games
OracleSoNNeikO
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteLive to Win · 65%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3