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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 36 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 33 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 24 games
83%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yatoro · 21 game
62%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 19 games
63%

Natus Vincere

Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 22 games
68%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 21 game
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
72%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
562 picks · 638 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
468 picks · 418 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 856 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
401 picks · 453 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
389 picks · 565 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 336 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 70%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total85% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:35
Team Spirit 71%Natus Vincere 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 49:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYatoro
50% · 157 games44% · 146 games
UrsaYuragi
Ursa
Earthshaker
EarthshakerLarl
53% · 132 games49% · 37 games
Death ProphetBOOM
Death Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCollapse
54% · 182 games43% · 412 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
50% · 169 games48% · 160 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Jakiro
JakiroMiposhka
50% · 260 games61% · 145 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct40:16
Team Spirit 72%Natus Vincere 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordYatoro
55% · 87 games48% · 94 games
UrsaYuragi
Ursa
Enigma
EnigmaCollapse
59% · 164 games36% · 282 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
53% · 334 games53% · 134 games
DoomBOOM
Doom
Axe
Axerue
44% · 59 games46% · 92 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
53% · 85 games50% · 127 games
Dark WillowAri
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct45:44
Team Spirit 72%Natus Vincere 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Venomancer
VenomancerLarl
42% · 37 games50% · 412 games
TinyYuragi
Tiny
Mars
MarsCollapse
42% · 169 games60% · 185 games
Monkey KingCopy
Monkey King
Muerta
MuertaYatoro
48% · 284 games56% · 44 games
UndyingBOOM
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritrue
51% · 323 games48% · 107 games
MarciAri
Marci
Bane
BaneMiposhka
51% · 66 games49% · 131 game
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 85%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3