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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 37 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 35 games
66%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 29 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 25 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 24 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
65%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
rue · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 19 games
79%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 25 games
68%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 23 games
65%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 16 games
44%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 15 games
73%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
476 picks · 517 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
460 picks · 493 bans
48%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
380 picks · 208 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 361 bans
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
353 picks · 761 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 524 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
339 picks · 220 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
325 picks · 514 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:9
Team Spirit 66%Natus Vincere 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 26:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYatoro
45% · 96 games48% · 166 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLarl
50% · 74 gameslittle data
Arc WardenNiku
Arc Warden
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
54% · 81 game52% · 120 games
Dawnbreakerpma
Dawnbreaker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetrue
50% · 103 games53% · 56 games
UndyingRiddys
Undying
Bane
BaneMiposhka
51% · 43 games48% · 55 games
DisruptorZayac
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct24:5
Team Spirit 64%Natus Vincere 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 32:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
56% · 206 games52% · 187 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCollapse
50% · 120 games56% · 47 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Windranger
WindrangerLarl
45% · 149 games45% · 347 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
52% · 199 games46% · 130 games
RubickZayac
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerMiposhka
54% · 82 games46% · 45 games
DazzleRiddys
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2